Week Forward: India Q3GDP knowledge, F&O expiry, FII circulate, international cues amongst key triggers for Indian inventory market

The Indian inventory market traded inside a good vary to increase its corrective part whereas settling at its lowest since early June. Whereas choose pockets of the market confirmed resilience, they did not drive a broader, significant restoration.

Subsequent, buyers will monitor some key market triggers within the final week of February. India’s financial development, the scheduled expiry of February’s by-product contracts, Donald Trump’s tariff bulletins, the rupee-dollar price, international fund outflow, home and international macroeconomic knowledge, and international market cues will dictate the market path within the subsequent 5 days.

Home fairness benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 prolonged their dropping streak for the fourth straight day to document weekly losses, dragged by auto, banking, and pharma shares on uncertainty over the affect of US commerce coverage, weaker rupee in opposition to the greenback and relentless international fund outflows. 

Additionally Learn: D-Avenue Forward: How will the Indian inventory market transfer subsequent week? Key technical ranges for Nifty, Sensex

Each benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, closed close to their weekly lows at 22,795.90 and 73,311.06, respectively. In the meantime, broader indices—midcap and smallcap—rebounded by roughly 1.5 per cent every after a pointy decline, offering some reduction. On the weekly entrance, the Sensex fell 628.15 factors or 0.82 per cent, and the Nifty went decrease by 133.35 factors or 0.58 per cent

With no main home occasions, the persistent international fund outflows and feedback from the US President on potential tariffs stored market sentiment subdued all through the week. On the sectoral entrance, a blended development stored market contributors engaged. Metals, vitality, and realty outperformed within the week, whereas auto, pharma, and FMCG had been the highest laggards. 

India’s company earnings remained beneath stress, with Nifty 50 corporations reporting modest 5 per cent development within the October-December quarter of FY25, marking the third consecutive quarter of single-digit will increase.

“India is at present lagging behind its Asian friends on excessive outflows. The “promote India, purchase China” technique yields returns. The market’s temper is cautious, with pessimistic sentiments prone to linger till company earnings enhance markedly and a conducive setting with straightforward international liquidity and stabilised forex emerges,” stated Vinod Nair, Head of Analysis, Geojit Monetary Companies.

Additionally Learn: NSE index rejig: BPCL and Britannia to exit, Jio Monetary, Zomato to enter Nifty 50 efficient March 28, 2025

This week, the first market will witness a softer development with a couple of preliminary public choices (IPO), and listings are slated throughout the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The upcoming holiday-shortened week shall be crucial from the home and international viewpoint as buyers will observe home and international financial knowledge, together with forex charges.

Listed here are the important thing triggers for inventory markets within the coming week:

India Q3 GDP development

In response to analysts, India’s GDP development is projected to decelerate to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent this fiscal 12 months, elevating considerations about India’s company profitability and financial stability. Most score companies and brokerages estimate the Q3GDP development between 6.2-6.4 per cent for the quarter.

The GDP knowledge for the third quarter of FY25 is scheduled to be launched on Friday, February 28, at 4:00 pm. Together with the Q3 GDP knowledge, the federal government will even launch the second advance estimate for the full-year GDP of FY25.

3 new IPOs, 5 listings to hit D-Avenue

No new IPOs are listed to be open within the mainboard phase this week. Three new points will open within the SME phase. Amongst listings, shares of High quality Energy Electrical Equipments Ltd will debut on the inventory change BSE. NSE on February 24. Shares of 4 new SMEs will debut on both BSE SME or NSE SME this week.

FII Exercise

Overseas investor sentiment remained weak, with roughly $25 billion in outflows from international institutional buyers (FII) for the reason that market peak in September, pushed by considerations over excessive valuations and a slowing financial system. 

Institutional exercise mirrored internet FII outflows of ₹7,793 crore within the money phase, whereas home institutional buyers (DII) inflows stood at ₹16,582 crore, providing some help to the market sentiment.

“FII promoting continues unabated within the Indian inventory market. After promoting shares for ₹81,903 crore by the exchanges in January, FIIs adopted it up by promoting shares for ₹30,588 crore by February 21,” stated Dr V Ok Vijayakumar, Chief Funding Strategist, Geojit Monetary Companies.

Additionally Learn: RBI MPC Minutes: Inflation average in near-term, international commerce insurance policies pose threat to development outlook; 5 key highlights

“This takes the whole promoting in 2025, up to now, to ₹1,12,492 crore. The huge promoting has resulted within the Nifty yielding damaging returns of 4 per cent YTD,” added Dr V Ok Vijayakumar. “Since October 2024, India’s market cap has fallen by about $1 trillion, whereas China’s has risen by $2 trillion. This implies a tactical shift in FII flows,” stated Vaibhav Porwal, Co-Founding father of Dezerv.

Knowledge from NSDL exhibits that Overseas Portfolio Buyers (FPIs) pulled out roughly ₹25,000 crore from Indian equities in January 2024 alone, in sharp distinction to the substantial inflows of over ₹1.7 lakh crore in 2023.

International Cues

The week is about to be dynamic for international and Indian markets, pushed by key macroeconomic knowledge releases and company earnings. Market sentiment shall be formed by GDP, Housing, inflation, infrastructure, and core PCE knowledge. 

On Wednesday, February 26, US New Residence Gross sales knowledge shall be launched
The US GDP Progress Charge (QoQ) Second Estimates for This autumn shall be launched on Thursday, February 27. Buyers will carefully watch developments in international institutional investor (FII) flows and updates on US tariff insurance policies.

Company Motion

Shares of SBI Playing cards and Fee Companies, Energy Finance Company Ltd, amongst others, will commerce ex-dividend within the coming week, ranging from Monday, February 24. A number of shares will even commerce ex-split and ex-bonus this week. Test full checklist right here

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50’s decisive break beneath 22,700 might set off the subsequent leg of the downtrend, probably dragging the index to 22,500 after which 22,000. Learn full technical evaluation right here

Disclaimer: The views and suggestions offered on this evaluation are these of particular person analysts or broking corporations, not Mint. We strongly advise buyers to seek the advice of with licensed specialists, take into account particular person threat tolerance, and conduct thorough analysis earlier than making funding selections, as market situations can change quickly, and particular person circumstances might fluctuate.